Cost Escalation in Nuclear Power

This report is concerned with the escalation of capital costs of nuclear central station power plants between the early 1960s and the present. The report presents an historical overview of the development of the nuclear power industry and cost escalation in the industry, using existing data on orders and capital costs. New data are presented on regulatory delays in the licensing process, derived from a concurrent study being carried on in the Social Science group at Caltech. The conclusions of the study are that nuclear capital costs have escalated more rapidly than the GNP deflator or the construction industry price index. Prior to 1970, cost increases are related to bottleneck problems in the nuclear construction and supplying industries and the regulatory process; intervenors play only a minor role in cost escalation. After 1970, generic changes introduced into the licensing process by intervenors (including environmental impact reviews, antitrust reviews, more stringent safety standards) dominate the cost escalation picture, with bottlenecks of secondary importance. Recent increases in the time from application for a construction permit to commercial operation are related not only to intervenor actions, but also to suspensions, cancellations or postponements of construction by utilities due to unfavorable demand or financing conditions

Wetland mapping from digitized aerial photography

Computer assisted interpretation of small scale aerial imagery was found to be a cost effective and accurate method of mapping complex vegetation patterns if high resolution information is desired. This type of technique is suited for problems such as monitoring changes in species composition due to environmental factors and is a feasible method of monitoring and mapping large areas of wetlands. The technique has the added advantage of being in a computer compatible form which can be transformed into any georeference system of interest

Factor Bias and Innovations: A Microeconomic Approach

This paper contains a microeconomic analysis of the influence of change in relative prices on the direction of inventive activity. A control-theory model of a firm which produces final output and also performs research and development is developed. It is assumed that the output of R & D is factor-augmenting technical change. An innovation possibility frontier for the firm is defined and conditions are found under which it is convex. The major theorems relate the change in innovation in response to changing factor prices to the elasticity of substitution in producing final output and to the nature of the production functions for innovation. Two special cases are examined in detail. When current innovation possibilities are appropriately independent of past innovations, the rate of factor augmentation is the same for all factors where relative prices are constant at any level. Comparing time paths with different, constant relative prices gives conditions under which an increase in the price of a factor directs innovation into lines which economize on that factor. A summary of earlier results on similar subjects is included

Ignition of thermally sensitive explosives between a contact surface and a shock

The dynamics of ignition between a contact surface and a shock wave is investigated using a one-step reaction model with Arrhenius kinetics. Both large activation energy asymptotics and high-resolution finite activation energy numerical simulations are employed. Emphasis is on comparing and contrasting the solutions with those of the ignition process between a piston and a shock, considered previously. The large activation energy asymptotic solutions are found to be qualitatively different from the piston driven shock case, in that thermal runaway first occurs ahead of the contact surface, and both forward and backward moving reaction waves emerge. These waves take the form of quasi-steady weak detonations that may later transition into strong detonation waves. For the finite activation energies considered in the numerical simulations, the results are qualitatively different to the asymptotic predictions in that no backward weak detonation wave forms, and there is only a weak dependence of the evolutionary events on the acoustic impedance of the contact surface. The above conclusions are relevant to gas phase equation of state models. However, when a large polytropic index more representative of condensed phase explosives is used, the large activation energy asymptotic and finite activation energy numerical results are found to be in quantitative agreement

Intraoperative detection of blood vessels with an imaging needle during neurosurgery in humans

Intracranial hemorrhage can be a devastating complication associated with needle biopsies of the brain. Hemorrhage can occur to vessels located adjacent to the biopsy needle as tissue is aspirated into the needle and removed. No intraoperative technology exists to reliably identify blood vessels that are at risk of damage. To address this problem, we developed an “imaging needle” that can visualize nearby blood vessels in real time. The imaging needle contains a miniaturized optical coherence tomography probe that allows differentiation of blood flow and tissue. In 11 patients, we were able to intraoperatively detect blood vessels (diameter, \u3e500 μm) with a sensitivity of 91.2% and a specificity of 97.7%. This is the first reported use of an optical coherence tomography needle probe in human brain in vivo. These results suggest that imaging needles may serve as a valuable tool in a range of neurosurgical needle interventions

Numerical experiments on short-term meteorological effects on solar variability

A set of numerical experiments was conducted to test the short-range sensitivity of a large atmospheric general circulation model to changes in solar constant and ozone amount. On the basis of the results of 12-day sets of integrations with very large variations in these parameters, it is concluded that realistic variations would produce insignificant meteorological effects. Any causal relationships between solar variability and weather, for time scales of two weeks or less, rely upon changes in parameters other than solar constant or ozone amounts, or upon mechanisms not yet incorporated in the model

Internal Threat Alliances: Great Powers, Fragmented Allies, and Alliance-Making in the Post-Cold War Era

International relations (IR) theory on alliances traditionally focuses on how and why states balance (resist) or bandwagon with (appease) external threats. But most threats faced by states today are not from other states. Rather, they come from within the states themselves in the form of civil war, rebellions, insurgencies and coups. Faced with threats emanating from within weak polities, great powers and the regimes ruling such peripheral states have brought their security policies into close cooperation and formed military alliances to quell the political violence or consequences thereof. The weak state’s leaders are motivated to make sure they remain in power, while the great power seeks to safeguard its interests associated therewith. These “internal threat alliances” differ fundamentally from those in which states align to balance a threat external to their borders (what I refer to as “external threat alliances”) but have not been adequately examined in the literature. To help fill this gap in IR theory, this dissertation explains four of these core differences and how they affect the behavior of both the threatened state (regime) and its prospective alliance partner. In so doing, the dissertation provides a framework of mid-range, contingent theoretical generalizations for understanding and explaining the more common type of alliance today. These core differences are the following. First, rather than balancing an external enemy in order to safeguard state security and territorial integrity, the great power/regime align in response to severe internal threats and to safeguard the regime’s survival and great power interests associated therewith. Second, instead of comprising two essentially cohesive actors with control over their alliance-relevant actors (the military, for example) that act to advance core national interests, the great power aligns with an extremely internally fragmented ally whose relevant actors/agencies often decide to advance their own interests over alliance goals and the national interest. Third, rather than the either/or relationship between balancing and bandwagoning in traditional alliances, some regime agencies balance the target threat while others simultaneously collude with the same set of actors. And fourth and finally, when deciding how to respond to threats the regime largely does not do what is best for their countries’ national interest—as is the case with traditional military alliances—but, instead, takes those actions that would preserve their political and personal power. The dissertation establishes this argument by employing a qualitative case study research methodology to examine two such internal threat alliances: the U.S. and Colombia (1980-2010) and the U.S. and Afghanistan (2001-2012). This included fieldwork and interviews in Colombia and Afghanistan. The dissertation is important in illustrating how the nature of alliance making has changed and for guiding policy given that great powers will be called upon to make this form of alliance in the future just as they are involved with them today

Metastatic Uveal Malignant Melanoma: A Case Report

Case Report A 77-year-old woman presented with a chief complaint of one day history of severe, acute abdominal pain. The patient described the pain as intense, non-radiating, and located primarily in the left upper abdominal quadrant.The pain was associated with nausea and multiple episodes of non-bilious, non-bloody emesis. She denied melena and hematochezia. On physical examination, her abdomen was soft and exquisitely tender in the left upper quadrant and epigastric regions. Aside from trace lower extremity edema.the remainder of her physical examination was unremarkable. Laboratory results at the time of admission were notable for:hemoglobin 10.8 g/dL, alkaline phosphatase 459 U/L, aspartate transaminase 56 U/L, and alanine transaminase 66 U/L. The patient\u27s past medical history was significant for hypertension, gastroesophageal reflux disease, papillary thyroid carcinoma. and right eye uveal melanoma. The ocular melanoma was treated 16 years ago with radioactive plaque followed by transpupillary thermal therapy. The patient was diagnosed with metastatic disease to her liver approximately 6 years prior and she had received several rounds of hepatic radiation and chemotherapeutic embolizations. The patient\u27s oncologist closely monitored her for disease progression through regular abdominal imaging studies